Read an article the other day about scientists creating an optical disk that would be readable in a million years or so. The article in Science Mag titled A million – year hard disk was intended to warn people about potential dangers in the way future that were being created today.
A while back I wrote about a 1000 year archive which was predominantly about disappearing formats. At the time, I believed given the growth in data density that information could easily be copied and saved over time but the formats for that data would be long gone by the time someone tried to read it.
The million year optical disk eliminates the format problem by using pixelated images etched on media. Which works just dandy if you happen to have a microscope handy.
Why would you need a million year disk
The problem is how do you warn people in the far future not to mess with radioactive waste deposits buried below. If the waste is radioactive for a million years, you need something around to tell people to keep away from it.
Stone markers last for a few thousand years at best but get overgrown and wear down in time. For instance, my grandmother’s tombstone in Northern Italy has already been worn down so much that it’s almost unreadable. And that’s not even 80 yrs old yet.
But a sapphire hard disk that could easily be read with any serviceable microscope might do the job.
How to create a million year disk
This new disk is similar to the old StorageTek 100K year optical tape. Both would depend on microscopic impressions, something like bits physically marked on media.
For the optical disk the bits are created by etching a sapphire platter with platinum. Apparently the prototype costs €25K but they’re hoping the prices go down with production.
There are actually two 20cm (7.9in) wide disks that are molecularly fused together and each disk can store 40K miniaturized pages that can hold text or images. They are doing accelerated life testing on the sapphire disks by bathing them in acid to insure a 10M year life for the media and message.
Presumably the images are grey tone (or in this case platinum tone). If I assume 100Kbytes per page that’s about 4GB, something around a single layer DVD disk in a much larger form factor.
It appears that sapphire is available from industrial processes and it seems impervious to wear that harms other material. But that’s what they are trying to prove.
Unclear why the decided to “molecularly” fuse two platters together. It seems to me this could easily be a weak link in the technology over the course of dozen millennia or so. On the other hand, more storage is always a good thing.
In the end, creating dangers today that last millions of years requires some serious thought about how to warn future generations.
I have been thinking about writing a post on “Is Flash Dead?” for a while now. Well at least since talking with IBM research a couple of weeks ago on their new memory technologies that they have been working on.
As we have discussed before, NAND flash memory has some serious limitations as it’s shrunk below 11nm or so. For instance, write endurance plummets, memory retention times are reduced and cell-to-cell interactions increase significantly.
These issues are not that much of a problem with today’s flash at 20nm or so. But to continue to follow Moore’s law and drop the price of NAND flash on a $/Gb basis, it will need to shrink below 16nm. At that point or soon thereafter, current NAND flash technology will no longer be viable.
Other non-NAND based non-volatile memories
That’s why IBM and others are working on different types of non-volatile storage such as PCM (phase change memory), MRAM (magnetic RAM) , FeRAM (Ferroelectric RAM) and others. All these have the potential to improve general reliability characteristics beyond where NAND Flash is today and where it will be tomorrow as chip geometries shrink even more.
IBM seems to be betting on MRAM or racetrack memory technology because it has near DRAM performance, extremely low power and can store far more data in the same amount of space. It sort of reminds me of delay line memory where bits were stored on a wire line and read out as they passed across a read/write circuit. Only in the case of racetrack memory, the delay line is etched in a silicon circuit indentation with the read/write head implemented at the bottom of the cleft.
Graphene as the solution
Then along comes Graphene based Flash Memory. Graphene can apparently be used as a substitute for the storage layer in a flash memory cell. According to the report, the graphene stores data using less power and with better stability over time. Both crucial problems with NAND flash memory as it’s shrunk below today’s geometries. The research is being done at UCLA and is supported by Samsung, a significant manufacturer of NAND flash memory today.
Current demonstration chips are much larger than would be useful. However, given graphene’s material characteristics, the researchers believe there should be no problem scaling it down below where NAND Flash would start exhibiting problems. The next iteration of research will be to see if their scaling assumptions can hold when device geometry is shrunk.
The other problem is getting graphene, a new material, into current chip production. Current materials used in chip manufacturing lines are very tightly controlled and building hybrid graphene devices to the same level of manufacturing tolerances and control will take some effort.
So don’t look for Graphene Flash Memory to show up anytime soon. But given that 16nm chip geometries are only a couple of years out and 11nm, a couple of years beyond that, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Graphene based Flash Memory introduced in about 4 years or so. Then again, I am no materials expert, so don’t hold me to this timeline.
Yesterday, it was announced that Hitachi General Storage Technologies (HGST) is being sold to Western Digital for $4.3B and after that there was much discussion in the tweeterverse about the end of enterprise disk as we know it. Also, last week I was at a dinner at an analyst meeting with Hitachi, where the conversation turned to when disks will no longer be available. This discussion was between Mr. Takashi Oeda of Hitachi RSD, Mr. John Webster of Evaluator group and myself.
Why SSDs will replace disks
John was of the opinion that disks would stop being economically viable in about 5 years time and will no longer be shipping in volume, mainly due to energy costs. Oeda-san said that Hitachi had predicted that NAND pricing on a $/GB basis would cross over (become less expensive than) 15Krpm disk pricing sometime around 2013. Later he said that NAND pricing had not come down as fast as projected and that it was going to take longer than anticipated. Note that Oeda-san mentioned density price cross over for only 15Krpm disk not 7200rpm disk. In all honesty, he said SATA disk would take longer, but he did not predict when
I think both arguments are flawed:
Energy costs for disk drives drop on a Watts/GB basis every time disk density increases. So the energy it takes to run a 600GB drive today will likely be able to run a 1.2TB drive tomorrow. I don’t think energy costs are going to be the main factor to drives disks out of the enterprise.
Density costs for NAND storage are certainly declining but cost/GB is not the only factor in technology adoption. Disk storage has cost more than tape capacity since the ’50s, yet they continue to coexist in the enterprise. I contend that disks will remain viable for at least the next 15-20 years over SSDs, primarily because disks have unique functional advantages which are vital to enterprise storage.
Most analysts would say I am wrong, but I disagree. I believe disks will continue to play an important role in the storage hierarchy of future enterprise data centers.
NAND/SSD flaws from an enterprise storage perspective
All costs aside, NAND based SSDs have serious disadvantages when it comes to:
Data retention – the problem with NAND data cells is that they can only be written so many times before they fail. And as NAND cells become smaller, this rate seems to be going the wrong way, i.e, today’s NAND technology can support 100K writes before failure but tomorrow’s NAND technology may only support 15K writes before failure. This is not a beneficial trend if one is going to depend on NAND technology for the storage of tomorrow.
Sequential access – although NAND SSDs perform much better than disk when it comes to random reads and less so, random writes, the performance advantage of sequential access is not that dramatic. NAND sequential access can be sped up by deploying multiple parallel channels but it starts looking like internal forms of wide striping across multiple disk drives.
Unbalanced performance – with NAND technology, reads operate quicker than writes. Sometimes 10X faster. Such unbalanced performance can make dealing with this technology more difficult and less advantageous than disk drives of today with much more balanced performance.
None of these problems will halt SSD use in the enterprise. They can all be dealt with through more complexity in the SSD or in the storage controller managing the SSDs, e.g., wear leveling to try to prolong data retention, multi-data channels for sequential access, etc. But all this additional complexity increases SSD cost, and time to market.
SSD vendors would respond with yes it’s more complex, but such complexity is a one time charge, mostly a one time delay, and once done, incremental costs are minimal. And when you come down to it, today’s disk drives are not that simple either with defect skipping, fault handling, etc.
So why won’t disk drives go away soon. I think other major concern in NAND/SSD ascendancy is the fact that the bulk NAND market is moving away from SLC (single level cell or bit/cell) NAND to MLC (multi-level cell) NAND due to it’s cost advantage. When SLC NAND is no longer the main technology being manufactured, it’s price will not drop as fast and it’s availability will become more limited.
Some vendors also counter this trend by incorporating MLC technology into enterprise SSDs. However, all the problems discussed earlier become an order of magnitude more severe with MLC NAND. For example, rather than 100K write operations to failure with SLC NAND today, it’s more like 10K write operations to failure on current MLC NAND. The fact that you get 2 to 3 times more storage per cell with MLC doesn’t help that much when one gets 10X less writes per cell. And the next generation of MLC is 10X worse, maybe getting on the order of 1000 writes/cell prior to failure. Similar issues occur for write performance, MLC writes are much slower than SLC writes.
So yes, raw NAND may become cheaper than 15Krpm Disks on a $/GB basis someday but the complexity to deal with such technology is also going up at an alarming rate.
Why disks will persist
Now something similar can be said for disk density, what with the transition to thermally assisted recording heads/media and the rise of bit-patterned media. All of which are making disk drives more complex with each generation that comes out. So what allows disks to persist long after $/GB is cheaper for NAND than disk:
Current infrastructure supports disk technology well in enterprise storage. Disks have been around so long, that storage controllers and server applications have all been designed around them. This legacy provides an advantage that will be difficult and time consuming to overcome. All this will delay NAND/SSD adoption in the enterprise for some time, at least until this infrastructural bias towards disk is neutralized.
Disk technology is not standing still. It’s essentially a race to see who will win the next generations storage. There is enough of an eco-system around disk that will keep pushing media, heads and mechanisms ever forward into higher densities, better throughput, and more economical storage.
However, any infrastructural advantage can be overcome in time. What will make this go away even quicker is the existance of a significant advantage over current disk technology in one or more dimensions. Cheaper and faster storage can make this a reality.
Moreover, as for the ecosystem discussion, arguably the NAND ecosystem is even larger than disk. I don’t have the figures but if one includes SSD drive producers as well as NAND semiconductor manufacturers the amount of capital investment in R&D is at least the size of disk technology if not orders of magnitude larger.
Disks will go extinct someday
So will disks become extinct, yes someday undoubtedly, but when is harder to nail down. Earlier in my career there was talk of super-paramagnetic effect that would limit how much data could be stored on a disk. Advances in heads and media moved that limit out of the way. However, there will come a time where it becomes impossible (or more likely too expensive) to increase magnetic recording density.
I was at a meeting a few years back where a magnetic head researcher predicted that such an end point to disk density increase would come in 25 years time for disk and 30 years for tape. When this occurs disk density increase will stand still and then it’s a certainty that some other technology will take over. Because as we all know data storage requirements will never stop increasing.
I think the other major unknown is other, non-NAND semiconductor storage technologies still under research. They have the potential for unlimited data retention, balanced performance and sequential performance orders of magnitude faster than disk and can become a much more functional equivalent of disk storage. Such technologies are not commercially available today in sufficient densities and cost to even threaten NAND let alone disk devices.
So when do disks go extinct. I would say in 15 to 20 years time we may see the last disks in enterprise storage. That would give disks an almost an 80 year dominance over storage technology.
But in any event I don’t see disks going away anytime soon in enterprise storage.
In another assault on the tape market, EMC announced today a new Data Domain 860 Archiver appliance. This new system supports both short-term and long-term retention of backup data. This attacks one of the last bastions of significant tape use – long-term data archives.
Historically, a cheap version of archives had been the long-term retention of full backup tapes. As such, if one needed to keep data around for 5 years, one would keep all their full backup tape sets offsite, in a vault somewhere for 5 years. They could then rotate the tapes (bring them back into scratch use) after the 5 years elapsed. One problem with this – tape technology is advancing to a new generation of technology more like every 2-3 years and as such, a 5-year old tape cartridge would be at least one generation back before it could be re-used. But current tape technology always reads 2 generations and writes at least one generation back so this use would still be feasible. I would say that many tape users did something like this to create a “psuedopseudo-archive”.
On the other hand, there exists many specific archive point products that focused on one or a few application arenas such as email, records, or database archives which would extract specific data items and place them into archive. These did not generally apply outside one or a few application domains but were used to support stringent compliance requirements. The advantage of these application based archive systems is that the data was actually removed from primary storage, out of any data protection activities and placed permanently in only “archive storage”. Such data would be subject to strict retention policies and as such, would be inviolate (couldn’t be modified) and could not be deleted until formally expired.
Enter the Data Domain 860 Archiver, this system supports up to 24 disk shelves, each one of which could either be dedicated to short- or long-term data retention. Backup file data is moved within the appliance by automated policy from short- to long-term storage. Up to 4-disk shelves can be dedicated to short-term storage with the remainder considered long-term archive units.
When a long-term archive unit (disk shelf) fills up with backup data it is “sealed”, i.e., it is given all the metadata required to reconstruct its file system and deduplication domain and thus, would not require the use of other disk shelves to access its data. In this way one creates a standalone unit that contains everything needed to recover the data. Not unlike a full backup tape set which can be used in a standalone fashion to restore data.
Today, the Data Domain 860 Archiver only supports file access and DD boost data access. By doing so, the backup software is responsible for deleting data that has expired. Such data will then be absent deleted from any backups taken and as policy automation copies the backups to long-term archive units it will be missing gone from there as well.
While Data Domain’s Archiver lacks removing the data from ongoing backup streams that application based archive products can achieve, it does look exactly like what could be achieved from tape based archives today.
One can also replicate base Data Domain or Archiver appliances to an Archiver unit to achieve offsite data archives.
Full disclosure: I currently work with EMC on projects specific to other products but am not currently working on anything associated with this product.
I must admit, even though I have disparaged DVD archive life (see CDs and DVDs longevity questioned) I still backup my work desktops/family computers to DVD and DVDdl disks. It’s cheap (on sale 100 DVDs cost about $30 and DVDdl ~2.5 that much) and it’s convenient (no need for additional software, outside storage fees, or additional drives). For offsite backups I take the monthly backups and store them in a safety deposit box.
But my partner (and wife) said “Your time is worth something, every time you have to swap DVDs you could be doing something else.” (… like helping around the house.)
She followed up by saying “Couldn’t you use something that was start it and forget it til it was done.”
Well this got me to thinking (as well as having multiple media errors in my latest DVDdl full backup), there’s got to be a better way.
The options for SOHO (small office/home office) Offsite backups look to be as follows: (from sexiest to least sexy)
Cloud storage for backup – Mozy, Norton Backup, Gladinet, Nasuni, and no doubt many others can provide secure, cloud based backup of desktop, laptop data for Macs and Window systems. Some of these would require a separate VM or server to connect to the cloud while others would not. Using the cloud might require the office systems to be left on at nite but that would be a small price to pay to backup your data offsite. Benefits to cloud storage approaches are that it would get the backups offsite, could be automatically scheduled/scripted to take place off-hours and would require no (or minimal) user intervention to perform. Disadvantages to this approach is that the office systems would need to be left powered on, backup data is out of your control and bandwidth and storage fees would need to be paid.
RDX devices – these are removable NFS accessed disk storage which can support from 40GB to 640GB per cartridge. The devices claim 30yr archive life, which should be fine for SOHO purposes. Cost of cartridges is probably RDX greatest issue BUT, unlike DVDs you can reuse RDX media if you want to. Benefits are that RDX would require minimal operator intervention for anything less than 640GB of backup data, backups would be faster (45MB/s), and the data would be under your control. Disadvantages are the cost of the media (640GB Imation RDX cartridge ~$310) and drives (?), data would not be encrypted unless encrypted at the host, and you would need to move the cartridge data offsite.
LTO tape – To my knowledge there is only one vendor out there that makes an iSCSI LTO tape and that is my friends at Spectra Logic but they also make a SAS (6Gb/s) attached LTO-5 tape drive. It’s unclear which level of LTO technology is supported with the iSCSI drive but even one or two generations down would work for many SOHO shops. Benefits of LTO tape are minimal operator intervention, long archive life, enterprise class backup technology, faster backups and drive data encryption. Disadvantages are the cost of the media ($27-$30 for LTO-4 cartridges), drive costs(?), interface costs (if any) and the need to move the cartridges offsite. I like the iSCSI drive because all one would need is a iSCSI initiator software which can be had easily enough for most desktop systems.
DAT tape – I thought these were dead but my good friend John Obeto informed me they are alive and well. DAT drives support USB 2.0, SAS or parallel SCSI interfaces. Although it’s unclear whether they have drivers for Mac OS/X, Windows shops could probably use them without problem. Benefits are similar to LTO tape above but not as fast and not as long a archive life. Disadvantages are cartridge cost (320GB DAT cartridge ~$37), drive costs (?) and one would have to move the media offsite.
(Blu-ray, Blu-ray dl), DVD, or DVDdl – These are ok but their archive life is miserable (under 2yrs for DVDs at best, see post link above). Benefits are they’res very cheap to use, lowest cost removable media (100GB of data would take ~22 DVDs or 12 DVDdls which at $0.30/ DVD or $0.75 for DVDdl thats ~$6.60 to $9 per backup), and lowest cost drive (comes optional on most desktops today). Disadvantages are high operator intervention (to swap out disks), more complexity to keep track of each DVDs portion of the backup, more complex media storage (you have a lot more of it), it takes forever (burning 7.7GB to a DVDdl takes around an hour or ~2.1MB/sec.), data encryption would need to be done at the host, and one has to take the media offsite. I don’t have similar performance data for using Blu-ray for backups other than Blu-ray dl media costs about $11.50 each (50GB).
Please note this post only discusses Offsite backups. Many SOHOs do not provide offsite backup (risky??) and for online backups I use a spare disk drive attached to every office and family desktop.
Probably other alternatives exist for offsite backups, not the least of which is NAS data replication. I didn’t list this as most SOHO customers are unlikely to have a secondary location where they could host the replicated data copy and the cost of a 2nd NAS box would need to be added along with the bandwidth between the primary and secondary site. BUT for those sophisticated SOHO customers out there already using a NAS box for onsite shared storage maybe data replication might make sense. Deduplication backup appliances are another possibility but suffer similar disadvantages to NAS box replication and are even less likely to be already used by SOHO customers.
Ok where to now. Given all this I M hoping to get a Blu-ray dl writer in my next iMac. Let’s see that would cut my DVDdl swaps down by ~3.2X for single layer and ~6.5X for dl Blu-ray. I could easily live with that until I quadrupled my data storage, again.
Although an iSCSI LTO-5 tape transport would make a real nice addition to the office…
In olden days, multi-track masters were recorded on audio tape and kept in vaults. Audio tape formats never seemed to change or at least changed infrequently, and thus, re-usable years or decades after being recorded. And the audio tape drives seemed to last forever.
Digital audio recordings on the other hand, are typically stored in book cases/file cabinets/drawers, on media that can easily become out-of-date technology (i.e., un-readable) and in digital formats that seem to change with every new version of software.
Consumer grade media doesn’t archive very well
The article talks about using hard drives for digital recordings and trying to read them decades after they were recorded. I would be surprised if they still spin up (due to stiction) let alone still readable. But even if these were CDs or DVDs, the lifetime of consumer grade media is not that long, maybe a couple of years at best, if treated well and if abused by writing on them or by bad handling, it’s considerably less than that.
Digital audio formats change frequently
The other problem with digital audio recordings is that formats go out of date. I am no expert but let’s take Apple’s Garage Band as an example. I would be surprised if 15 years down the line that a 2010 Garage Band session recorded today was readable/usable with Garage Band 2025, assuming it even existed. Sounds like a long time but it’s probably nothing for popular music coming out today.
Solutions to digital audio media problems
Audio recordings must use archive grade media if it’s to survive for longer than 18-36 months. I am aware of archive grade DVD disks but have never tested any, so cannot speak to their viability in this application. However, for an interesting discussion on archive quality CD&DVD media see How to choose CD/DVD archival media. But, there are other alternatives.
Removable data center class archive media today includes magnetic tape, removable magnetic disks or removable MO disks.
Magnetic tape – LTO media vendors specify archive life on the order of 30 years, however this assumes a drive exists that can read the media. The LTO consortium states that current generation drives will read back two generations (LTO-5 drive today reads LTO-4 and LTO-3 media) and write back one generation (LTO-5 drive can write on LTO-4 media [in LTO-4 format]). With LTO generations coming every 2 years or so, it would only take 6 years for a LTO volume, recorded today to be unreadable by current drives. Naturally, one could keep an old drive around but maintenance/service would no longer be available for it after a couple of years. LTO drives are available from a number of vendors.
Magnetic disk – The RDX Storage Alliance claims a media archive life of 30 years but I wonder whether a RDX drive would exist that could read it and the other question is how archive life was validated. Today’s removable disk typically imitates a magnetic tape drive/format. The most prominent removable disk vendor is ProStor Systems but there are others.
Magneto-optical (MO) media – Plasmon UDO claims a media life of 50+ years for their magneto-optical media. UDO has been used for years to record check images, medical information and other data. Nonetheless, recently UDO technology has not been able to keep up with other digital archive solutions and have gained a pretty bad rap for usability problems. However, they plan to release a new generation of UDO product line in 2010 which may shake things up if it arrives and can address their usability issues.
Finally, one could use non-removable, high density disk drives and migrate the audio data every 2-3 years to new generation disks. This would keep the data readable and continuously accessible. Modern storage systems with RAID and other advanced protection schemes can protect data from any single and potentially double drive failure but as drives age, their error rate goes up. This is why the data needs to be moved to new disks periodically. Naturally, this is more frequently than magnetic tape, but given disk drive usability and capacity gains, might make sense in certain applications.
As for removable USB sticks – unclear what the archive life is for these consumer devices but potentially some version that went after the archive market might make sense. It would need to be robust, have a long archive life and be cheap enough to compete with all the above. I just don’t see anything here yet.
Solutions to digital audio format problems
There needs to be an XML-like description of a master recording that reduces everything to a more self-defined level which describes the hierarchy of the recording, and provides object buckets for various audio tracks/assets. Plugins that create special effects would need to convert their effects to something akin to a MPEG-like track that could be mixed with the other tracks, surrounded by meta-data describing where it starts, ends and other important info.
Baring that, some form of standardization on a master recording format would work. Such a standard could be supported by all major recording tools and would allow a master recording to be exported and imported across software tools/versions. As this format evolved, migration/conversion products could be supplied to upgrade old formats to new ones.
Another approach is to have some repository for current master audio recording formats. As software packages go out of date/business, their recording format could be stored in some “format repository”, funded by the recording industry and maintained in perpetuity. Plug-in use would need to be documented similarly. With a repository like this around and “some amount” of coding, no master recording need be lost to out-of-date software formats.
Nonetheless, If your audio archive needs to be migrated periodically, it be a convenient time to upgrade the audio format as well.
I have written about these problems before in a more general sense (see Today’s data and the 1000 year archive) but the recording industry seems to be “leading edge” for these issues. When Producer T Bone Burnett testifies at a hearing that “Digital is a feeble storage medium” it’s time to step up and take action.
Digital storage is no more feeble than analog storage – they each have their strengths and weaknesses. Analog storage has gone away because it couldn’t keep up with digital recording densities, pricing, and increased functionality. Just because data is recorded digitally doesn’t mean it has to be impermanent, hard to read 15-35 years hence, or in formats that are no longer supported. But it does take some careful thought on what storage media you use and on how you format your data.
Many in the industry will recall that current GMR (Giant Magneto-resistance) heads and TMR (Tunnel magneto-resistance) next generation disk read heads already make use of spintronics to detect magnetized bit values in disk media. GMR heads detect bit values on media by changing its electrical resistance.
Spintronics however can also be used to record data as well as read it. These capabilities are being exploited in MRAM technology which uses a ferro-magnetic material to record data in magnetic spin alignment – spin UP, means 0; spin down, means 1 (or vice versa).
The technologists claim that when MRAM reaches its full potential it could conceivably replace DRAM, SRAM, NAND, and hard disk drives or all current electrical and magnetic data storage. Some of MRAM’s advantages include unlimited write passes, fast reads and writes and data non-volatilility.
MRAM reminds me of old fashioned magnetic core memory (in photo above) which used magnetic polarity to record non-volatile data bits. Core was a memory mainstay in the early years of computing before the advent of semi-conductor devices like DRAM.
Back to future – MRAM
However, the problems with MRAM today are that it is low-density, takes lots of power and is very expensive. But technologists are working on all these problems with the view that the future of data storage will be MRAM. In fact, researchers at the North Carolina State University (NCSU) Electrical Engineering department have been having some success with reducing power requirements and increasing density.
As for data density NCSU researchers now believe they can record data in cells approximating 20 nm across, better than current bit patterned media which is the next generation disk recording media. However reading data out of such a small cell will prove to be difficult and may require a separate read head on top of each cell. The fact that all of this is created with normal silicon fabrication methods make doing so at least feasible but the added chip costs may be hard to justify.
Regarding high power, their most recent design records data by electronically controlling the magnetism of a cell. They are using dilute magnetic semiconductor material doped with gallium maganese which can hold spin value alignment (see the article for more information). They are also using a semiconductor p-n junction on top of the MRAM cell. Apparently at the p-n junction they can control the magnetization of the MRAM cells by applying -5 volts or removing this. Today the magnetization is temporary but they are also working on solutions for this as well.
NCSU researchers would be the first to admit that none of this is ready for prime time and they have yet to demonstrate in the lab a MRAM memory device with 20nm cells, but the feeling is it’s all just a matter of time and lot’s of research.
Fortunately, NCSU has lots of help. It seems Freescale, Honeywell, IBM, Toshiba and Micron are also looking into MRAM technology and its applications.
Let’s see, using electron spin alignment in a magnetic medium to record data bits, needs a read head to read out the spin values – couldn’t something like this be used in some sort of next generation disk drive that uses the ferromagnetic material as a recording medium. Hey, aren’t disks already using a ferromagnetic material for recording media? Could MRAM be fabricated/layed down as a form of magnetic disk media?? Maybe there’s life in disks yet….
I talked last week with some folks from Nimbus Data who were discussing their new storage subsystem. Apparently it uses eMLC (enterprise Multi-Level Cell) NAND SSDs for its storage and has no SLC (Single Level Cell) NAND at all.
Nimbus believes with eMLC they can keep the price/GB down and still supply the reliability required for data center storage applications. I had never heard of eMLC before but later that week I was scheduled to meet with Texas Memory Systems and Micron Technologies that helped get me up to speed on this new technology.
eMLC and its cousin, eSLC are high durability NAND parts which supply more erase/program cycles than generally available from MLC and SLC respectively. If today’s NAND technology can supply 10K erase/program cycles for MLC and similarly, 100K erase/program cycles for SLC then, eMLC can supply 30K. Never heard a quote for eSLC but 300K erase/program cycles before failure might be a good working assumption.
The problem is that NAND wears out, and can only sustain so many erase/program cycles before it fails. By having more durable parts, one can either take the same technology parts (from MLC to eMLC) to use them longer or move to cheaper parts (from SLC to eMLC) to use them in new applications.
This is what Nimbus Data has done with eMLC. Most data center class SSD or cache NAND storage these days are based on SLC. But SLC, with only on bit per cell, is very expensive storage. MLC has two (or three) bits per cell and can easily halve the cost of SLC NAND storage.
Moreover, the consumer market which currently drives NAND manufacturing depends on MLC technology for cameras, video recorders, USB sticks, etc. As such, MLC volumes are significantly higher than SLC and hence, the cost of manufacturing MLC parts is considerably cheaper.
But the historic problem with MLC NAND is the reduction in durability. eMLC addresses that problem by lengthening the page programming (tProg) cycle which creates a better, more lasting data write, but slows write performance.
The fact that NAND technology already has ~5X faster random write performance than rotating media (hard disk drives) makes this slightly slower write rate less of an issue. If eMLC took this to only ~2.5X disk writes it still would be significantly faster. Also, there are a number of architectural techniques that can be used to speed up drive write speeds easily incorporated into any eMLC SSD.
How long will SLC be around?
The industry view is that SLC will go away eventually and be replaced with some form of MLC technology because the consumer market uses MLC and drives NAND manufacturing. The volumes for SLC technology will just be too low to entice manufacturers to support it, driving the price up and volumes even lower – creating a vicious cycle which kills off SLC technology. Not sure how much I believe this, but that’s conventional wisdom.
The problem with this prognosis is that by all accounts the next generation MLC will be even less durable than today’s generation (not sure I understand why but as feature geometry shrinks, they don’t hold charge as well). So if today’s generation (25nm) MLC supports 10K erase/program cycles, most assume the next generation (~18nm) will only support 3K erase/program cycles. If eMLC then can still support 30K or even 10K erase/program cycles that will be a significant differentiator.
Technology marches on. Something will replace hard disk drives over the next quarter century or so and that something is bound to be based on transistorized logic of some kind, not the magnetized media used in disks today. Given todays technology trends, it’s unlikely that this will continue to be NAND but something else will most certainly crop up – stay tuned.