Storywrangler, ranking tweet ngrams over time

Read a couple of articles the past few weeks on a project in Vermont that has randomly selected 10% of all tweets (150 Billion) since the beginning of Twitter (2008) and can search and rank this tweet corpus for ngrams (1-, 2-, & 3-word phrases). All of these articles were reporting on a Science Advances article: Storywrangler: A massive exploratorium for sociolinguistic, cultural, socioeconomic, and political timelines using Twitter.

Why we need Storywrangler

The challenge with all social media is that it is transient, here now, (mostly) gone tomorrow. That is once posted, if it’s liked/re-posted/re-tweeted it can exist in echoes of the original on the service for some time, and if not, it dies out very quickly never to be seen (externally ever) again. While each of us could potentially see every tweet we have ever created (when this post is published it should be my 5387th tweet on my twitter account) but most of us cannot see this history for others.

All that makes viewing what goes on on social media impossible which leads to a lot of mis-understanding and makes it difficult to analyze. It would be great if we had a way of looking at social media activity in more detail to understand it better.

I wrote about this before (see my Computational anthropology & archeology post) and if anything, the need for such capabilities has become even more important in today’s society.

If only there was a way to examine the twitter-verse. What’s mainly lacking is a corpus of all tweets that have ever been tweeted. A way to slice, dice, search, and rank this text data would be a godsend to understanding (twitter and maybe social) history, in real time.

Storywrangler, has a randomized version of 10% of all tweets since twitter started. And it provides ngram searching and ranking over a specified time interval. It’s not everything but it’s a start.

Storywrangler currently has over 1 trillion (1- to 3- word) ngrams and they support ngram rankings for over 150 different languages.

Google books ngram viewer

The idea for the Storywrangler project came from Google’s books ngram viewer. Google’s ngram viewer has a corpus of Google books, over a time period (from 1800 to 2019) and allows one to search for ngrams (1- to 5-word phrases) over any time period they support.

Google’s ngram viewer charts ngrams with a vertical axis that is the % of all ngrams in their book corpus. One can see the rise and fall of ngrams, e.g., “atomic power”. The phrase “atomic power” peaked in Google books around 1960 at a height of 0.000260% of all 2 word ngrams. The time period level of granularity is a year.

The nice thing about Google books ngram data is you can download their book ngram data yourself. The data is of the form of tab separated list of rows with ngram text (1 to 5 words), year, how many times it occurred that year, on how many pages, on how many books on each row. Google books ngram data is generally about 2 years old.

Unclear just how much data is in Google’s books ngram database but for instance in the 1 gram English fiction list, they show a sample of two rows (the 3,000,000 and 3,000,001 rows) which are the 1978 and 1979 book counts for the word “circumvallate”.

Storywrangler tweet ngram viewer

The usage tab on the Storywrangler website provides a search engine that one can use to input N-grams that you want to search the corpus for and can visualize how their rank changes over time. For example, one can do a similar search on the “atomic power” ngram only for tweets.

From Storywrangler search one can see that peak tweet use of “Atomic Power” and “ATOMIC POWER” occurred somewhere in July of 2020 (only way to see the month is to hover over that line) and it’s rank reached somewhere around ~10,000 highest used tweet 2 word ngram during that time.

It’s interesting to see that ngram books and ngram twitter don’t seem to have any correlation. For example the prior best ranking for atomic power (~200Kth highest) was in June of 2015. There was no similar peak for book ngrams of the phrase.

For Storywrangler you can download a JSON or CSV version of the charts displayed. It’s not the complete ngram history that Google book ngram viewer provides. Storywrangler data is generally about 2 days old.

The other nice thing about Storywrangler is under the real-time tab it will show you ngram rankings at 15 minute intervals for whatever timeline you wish to see. Also under the trending tab it will show you the changing ranks for the top 5 ngrams over a selected time period. And the languagetab will do tracking for tweet language use for select languages. The common tab will track the ranking of most common ngrams (pretty boring mostly articles/prepositions) over time. And for any of these searches one can turn on or off retweet counting, which can help to eliminate bot activity.

Storywrangler provides a number of other statistics for ngrams other than just ranking such as odds (of occurring) and frequency (of occurrence). And one can also track rank change, old (years) rank vs. current (year) rank, rank (turbulence) divergence.

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Kasten, Kafka & the quest to protect data #CFD11

We attended Cloud Field Day 11 (CFD11) last week and among the vendors at the show was Kasten by Veeam talking about their extensive Kubernetes data protection/DR/migration capabilities. All that was worthy of its own blog post but somewhere near the end of their session, they started discussing how they plan to backup Apache Kafka message traffic

We have discussed Kafka before (see our Data in motion post). For those who have read that post or are familiar with Kafka, you can ignore the Kafka primer section below and just for the record, I’m no Kafka expert.

Kafka primer

Kafka is a massively scalable message bus and real time stream processing system. Messages or records come in from Kafka producers and are sent to Kafka consumers or subscribers for processing. Kafka supplies a number of guarantees one of which is that messages are processed once and only once.

Messages or records are key-value pairs that are generated continuously and are processed by Kafka apps. Message streams are split into topics.

Kafka connectors allow message traffic to be extracted/generated from external databases and other systems . Kafka stream processors use Kafka streaming primitives and stream flow graphs to construct applications that process unbounded, continuously updated data sets.

Topics in Kafka can have multi-producers and multi-subscribers. Each topic can be further split across partitions which can be processed in different servers or brokers in a Kafka cluster. It’s this partitioning that allows Kafka to scale from processing 1 message to millions of messages per second.

Consumers/subscribers can also be producers, so a message that comes in and is processed by a subscriber could create other messages on topics that need to be processed. Messages are placed on topic partitions in the order they are received.

Messages can be batched and added to a partition or not. Recently Kafka added support for sticky partitions. Normally messages are assigned to partitions based on key hashing but sometimes messages have null keys and in this case Kafka assigned them to partitions in a round robin fashion. Sticky partitioning strategy amends that approach to use batches of messages rather than single messages when adding null key messages to partitions.

Kafka essentially provides a realtime streaming message/event processing system that scales very well.

Data protection for Kafka streams without Kasten

This is our best guess as to what this looks like, so bear with us.

Sometime after messages are processed by a subscriber they can be sent to a logging system. If that system records those messages to external storage, they would be available to be copied off-line and backed up.

How far behind real time, Kafka logs happen to be can vary significantly based on the incoming/outgoing message traffic, resources available for logging and the overall throughput of your logging process/storage. Could it be an hour or two behind, possibly but I doubt it, could it be 1 second behind, also unlikely. Somewhere in between those two extremes seems reasonable

Log processing messages just like any topic could be partitioned. So any single log would only have messages on that partition. So there would need to be some post process to stitch all these log partitions together to get a consistent message stream.

In any case, there is potentially a wide gulf between the message data that is being processed and the logs which hold them. But then they need to be backed up as well so there’s another gap introduced between the backed up data what is happening in real time This is especially true the more messages that are being processed in your Kafka cluster.

(Possible) data protection for Kafka streams with Kasten

For starters, it wasn’t clear what Kasten presented was a current product offering, beta offering or just a germ of an idea. So bear that in mind. See the videos of their CFD11 session here for their take on this.

Kafka supports topic replication. What this means is that any topic can be replicated to other servers in the Kafka cluster. Topics can have 0 to N replications and one server is always designated leader (or primary) for a topic and other replicas are secondary. The way it’s supposed to work is that the primary topic partition server will not acknowledge or formally accept any message until it is replicated to all other topic replicas.

What Kasten is proposing is to use topic replicas and take hot snapshots of replicated topic partitions at the secondary server. That way there should be a minimal impact on primary topic message processing. Once snapped, topic partition message data can be backed up and sent offsite for DR.

We have a problem with this chart. Our understanding is that if we take the numbers to be a message id or sequence number, each partition should be getting different messages rather than the the same messages. Again we are not Kafka experts. The Eds.

However, even though Kasten plans to issue hot snapshots, one after another, for each partition, there is still a small time difference between each snap request. As a result, the overall state of the topic partitions when snapped may be slightly inconsistent. In fact, there is a small possibility that when you stitch all the partition snapshots together for a topic, some messages may be missing.

For example, say a topic is replicated and when looking at the replicated topic partition some message say Msg[2001] was delayed (due to server load) in being replicated for partition 0, while Kasten was hot snapping replica partition 15 which already held Msg[2002]. In this case the snapshots missed Msg[2001]. Thus hot snapshots in aggregate, can be missing one or (potentially) more messages.

Kasten called this a crash consistent backup but it’s not the term we would use (not sure what the term would be but it’s worse than crash consistent). But to our knowledge, this was the first approach that Kasten (or anyone else) has described that comes close to providing data protection for Kafka messaging.

As another alternative, Kasten suggested one could make the backed up set of partitions better would by post processing all the snapshots to find the last message point where all prior messages were available and jettisoning any followon messages. In this way, after post processing, the set of data derived from the hot snaps would be crash consistent up to that message point..

It seems to me, the next step to create an application consistent Kafka messaging backup would require Kafka to provide some way to quiesce a topic message stream. Once quiesced and after some delay to accept all in flight messages, hot snaps could be taken. The resultant snapshots in aggregate would have all the messages to the last one accepted.

Unclear whether quiescing a Kafka topic stream, even for a matter of seconds to minutes, is feasible for a system that processes 1000s to millions of messages per second.

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Photonic [AI] computing seeing the light of day – part 2

Read an interesting article in Analytics India Magazine (MIT Researchers Make New Chips That Work On Light) about a startup out of MIT focused on using photonics for AI/ML/DL activities. Not exactly neuromorphic chips, but using analog photonics interactions to perform computational intensive operations required by todays deep neural net training.

We’ve written about photonics computing before ( see Photonic computing seeing the light of day [-part 1]). That post was about spin outs from Princeton and MIT back in 2019. We showed a bit more on how photonics can perform multiplication and other computations with less power.

The article (noted above) talked about LightIntelligence, an MIT spinout/ startup that’s been around since ~2017, but there’s another company in the same space, also out of MIT called LightMatter that just announced early access to their hardware system.

The CEOs of both companies collaborated on a paper (#1&2 authors of the 10 author paper) written back in 2017 on Deep Learning with Coherent Nanophotonic Circuits. This seemed to be the event that launched both companies.

LightMatter just received $80M in Series B funding ( bringing total funding to $113M) last month and LightIntelligence seems to have $40M in total funding So both have decent funding but, LightMatter seems further ahead in funding and product technology.

LightMatter

LightMatter Envise Photonics-RISC AI processing chip

LightMatter Envise AI chip uses standard RISC electronic cores together with Photo Arithmetic Units for accelerated AI computations. Each Envise chip has 500MB of SRAM for large models, offers 400Gbps chip to chip interconnect fabric, 256 RISC cores, a Graph processor, 294 photonic arithmetic units and PCIe 4.0 connectivity.

LightMatter has just announced early access for their Envise AI photonics server. It’s an 4U, AI server with 16 Envise chips, 2 AMD EPYC CPUs, (16×400=)6.4Tpbs optical fabric for inter-chip communications, 1TB of DDR4 DRAM, 3TB of NVMe SSD and supports 2-200GbE SmartNICs for outside communications.

Envise also offers Idiom Software that interfaces with standard AI frameworks to transform models for photonics computing to use Envise hardware . Developers select Envise hardware to run their AI models on and Idiom automatically re-compiles (IdCompile) their model into more parallelized, photonics operations. Idiom also has a model profiler (IdProfiler) to help debug and visualize photonic models in operation (training or inferencing?) on Envise hardware. Idiom also offers an AI model library (IdML) which provides a PyTorch frontend to help compress and quantize a standard set of AI models.

LightMatter also announced their Passage optical interconnect chip that supplies 100Tbps optical switch for photonics, CPU or GPU processing. It’s huge, 8″x8″ and built on 5nm/7nm node process. Passage can connect up to 48 photonics, CPU or GPU chips that are built onto of it (one can see the space for each of these 48 [sub-]chips on the chip). LightMatter states that 40 Passage (photonic/optical) lanes are the width of one optical fibre. Passage chips are sampling now.

LightMatter Passage photonics-transistor chip (carrier) that provides a photonics programmable interconnect for inter-[photonics-electronic-]chip communications.

LightIntelligence

They don’t appear to be announcing any specific hardware just yet but they are at work in creating the world largest integrated photonics processing system. But LightIntelligence have published a number of research papers focused on photonic approaches to CNNs, RNNs/LSTMs/GRUs, Recurrent ISING machines, statistical computing, and invisibility cloaking.

Turns out the processing power needed to provide invisibility cloaking is very intensive and as its all pixels, photonics offers serious speedups (for invisibility, see Nature article, behind paywall).

Photonics Recurrent ISLING Sampler (PRIS)

LightIntelligence did produce a prototype photonics processor in 2019. And they believe the will have de-risked 80-90% of their photonics technology by year end 2021.

If I had to guess, it would appear as if LightIntelligence is trying to re-imagine deep learning taking a predominately all photonics approach.

Why photonics for AI DL

It turns out that one can use the interaction/interference between two light beams to perform matrix multiplication and other computations a lot faster, with a lot less power than using standard RISC (or CISC) electronic processor architectures. Typical GPUs run 400W each and multi-GPU training activities are commonplace today.

The research documented in the (Deep learning using nanophotonics) paper was based on using an optical FPGA which we have talked about before (See Photonics or Optical FPGAs on the horizon) to prototype the technology back in 2017.

Can photonics change the technology underpinning AI or computing?

If by using photonics, one could speed up AI inferencing by 3-5X and do it with 5-6X less power, you might have a market. These are LightMatter Envise performance numbers on ResNet50 with ImageNet and BERT-Base with SQUAD v1.1 against NVIDIA DGX-A100 (state of the art) AI processing system.

The challenge to changing the technology behind multi-million/billion/trillion dollar industry is that it’s not sufficient to offer a product better than the competition. One has to offer a technology that’s better enough to fund the building of a new (multi-million/billion/trillion dollar) ecosystem surrounding that technology. In order to do that it’s got to be orders of magnitude faster/lower power/better so that commercial customers adopt it en masse.

I like where LightMatter is going with their Passage chip. But their Envise server doesn’t seem fast enough to give them enough traction to build a photonics ecosystem or to fund Envise 2, 3, 4, etc. to change the industry.

The 2017 (Deep learning using nanophotonics) paper predicted that an all optical/photonics implementation of CNN would use 3 orders of magnitude less power for small models and that advantage would only go up for larger models (not counting power for data movement, photo detectors, etc.). Now if that’s truly feasible and maybe it takes a more photonics intensive processor to get there, then photonics technology could truly transform the AI or for that matter the computing industry.

But the other thing that LightIntelligence and LightMatter may be counting on is the slowdown in Moore’s law which may inhibit further advances in electronics processing power. Whether the silicon industry is ready to throw in the towel yet on Moore’s law is TBD.

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New era of graphical AI is near #AIFD2 @Intel

I attended AIFD2 ( videos of their sessions available here) a couple of weeks back and for the last session, Intel presented information on what they had been working on for new graphical optimized cores and a partner they have, called Katana Graph, which supports a highly optimized graphical analytics processing tool set using latest generation Xeon compute and Optane PMEM.

What’s so special about graphs

The challenges with graphical processing is that it’s nothing like standard 2D tables/images or 3D oriented data sets. It’s essentially a non-Euclidean data space that has nodes with edges that connect them.

But graphs are everywhere we look today, for instance, “friend” connection graphs, “terrorist” networks, page rank algorithms, drug impacts on biochemical pathways, cut points (single points of failure in networks or electrical grids), and of course optimized routing.

The challenge is that large graphs aren’t easily processed with standard scale up or scale out architectures. Part of this is that graphs are very sparse, one node could point to one other node or to millions. Due to this sparsity, standard data caching fetch logic (such as fetching everything adjacent to a memory request) and standardized vector processing (same instructions applied to data in sequence) don’t work very well at all. Also standard compute branch prediction logic doesn’t work. (Not sure why but apparently branching for graph processing depends more on data at the node or in the edge connecting nodes).

Intel talked about a new compute core they’ve been working on, which was was in response to a DARPA funded activity to speed up graphical processing and activities 1000X over current CPU/GPU hardware capabilities.

Intel presented on their PIUMA core technology was also described in a 2020 research paper (Programmable Integrated and Unified Memory Architecture) and YouTube video (Programmable Unified Memory Architecture).

Intel’s PIUMA Technology

DARPA’s goals became public in 2017 and described their Hierarchical Identity Verify Exploit (HIVE) architecture. HIVE is DOD’s description of a graphical analytics processor and is a multi-institutional initiative to speed up graphical processing. .

Intel PIUMA cores come with a multitude of 64-bit RISC processor pipelines with a global (shared) address space, memory and network interfaces that are optimized for 8 byte data transfers, a (globally addressed) scratchpad memory and an offload engine for common operations like scatter/gather memory access.

Each multi-thread PIUMA core has a set of instruction caches, small data caches and register files to support each thread (pipeline) in execution. And a PIUMA core has a number of multi-thread cores that are connected together.

PIUMA cores are optimized for TTEPS (Tera-Traversed Edges Per Second) and attempt to balance IO, memory and compute for graphical activities. PIUMA multi-thread cores are tied together into (completely connected) clique into a tile, multiple tiles are connected within a single node and multiple nodes are tied together with a 8 byte transfer optimized network into a PIUMA system.

P[I]UMA (labeled PUMA in the video) multi-thread cores apparently eschew extensive data and instruction caching to focus on creating a large number of relatively simple cores, that can process a multitude of threads at the same time. Most of these threads will be waiting on memory, so the more threads executing, the less likely that whole pipeline will need to be idle, and hopefully the more processing speedup can result.

Performance of P[I]UMA architecture vs. a standard Xeon compute architecture on graphical analytics and other graph oriented tasks were simulated with some results presented below.

Simulated speedup for a single node with P[I]UMAtechnology vs. Xeon range anywhere from 3.1x to 279x and depends on the amount of computation required at each node (or edge). (Intel saw no speedups between a single Xeon node and multiple Xeon Nodes, so the speedup results for 16 P[I]UMA nodes was 16X a single P[I]UMA node).

Having a global address space across all PIUMA nodes in a system is pretty impressive. We guess this is intrinsic to their (large) graph processing performance and is dependent on their use of photonics HyperX networking between nodes for low latency, small (8 byte) data access.

Katana Graph software

Another part of Intel’s session at AIFD2 was on their partnership with Katana Graph, a scale out graph analytics software provider. Katana Graph can take advantage of ubiquitous Xeon compute and Optane PMEM to speed up and scale-out graph processing. Katana Graph uses Intel’s oneAPI.

Katana graph is architected to support some of the largest graphs around. They tested it with the WDC12 web data commons 2012 page crawl with 3.5B nodes (pages) and 128B connections (links) between nodes.

Katana runs on AWS, Azure, GCP hyperscaler environment as well as on prem and can scale up to 256 systems.

Katana Graph performance results for Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) is shown below. GNNs are similar to AI/ML/DL CNNs but use graphical data rather than images. One can take a graph and reduce (convolute) and summarize segments to classify them. Moreover, GNNs can be used to understand whether two nodes are connected and whether two (sub)graphs are equivalent/similar.

In addition to GNNs, Katana Graph supports Graph Transformer Networks (GTNs) which can analyze meta paths within a larger, heterogeneous graph. The challenge with large graphs (say friend/terrorist networks) is that there are a large number of distinct sub-graphs within the graph. GTNs can break heterogenous graphs into sub- or meta-graphs, which can then be used to understand these relationships at smaller scales.

At AIFD2, Intel also presented an update on their Analytics Zoo, which is Intel’s MLops framework. But that will need to wait for another time.

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It was sort of a revelation to me that graphical data was not amenable to normal compute core processing using today’s GPUs or CPUs. DARPA (and Intel) saw this defect as a need for a completely different, brand new compute architecture.

Even so, Intel’s partnership with Katana Graph says that even today compute environment could provide higher performance on graphical data with suitable optimizations.

It would be interesting to see what Katana Graph could do using PIUMA technology and appropriate optimizations.

In any case, we shouldn’t need to wait long, Intel indicated in the video that P[I]UMA Technology chips could be here within the next year or so.

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Photo Credit(s):

  • From Intel’s AIFD2 presentations
  • From Intel’s PUMA you tube video

Swarm learning for distributed & confidential machine learning

Read an article the other week about researchers in Germany working with a form of distributed machine learning they called swarm learning (see: AI with swarm intelligence: a novel technology for cooperative analysis …) which was reporting on a Nature magazine article (see: Swarm Learning for decentralized and confidential clinical machine learning).

The problem of shared machine learning is particularly accute with medical data. Many countries specifically call out patient medical information as data that can’t be shared between organizations (even within country) unless specifically authorized by a patient.

So these organizations and others are turning to use distributed machine learning as a way to 1) protect data across nodes and 2) provide accurate predictions that uses all the data even though portions of that data aren’t visible. There are two forms of distributed machine learning that I’m aware of federated and now swarm learning.

The main advantages of federated and swarm learning is that the data can be kept in the hospital, medical lab or facility without having to be revealed outside that privileged domain BUT the [machine] learning that’s derived from that data can be shared with other organizations and used in aggregate, to increase the prediction/classification model accuracy across all locations.

How distributed machine learning works

Distributed machine learning starts with a common model that all nodes will download and use to share learnings. At some agreed to time (across the learning network), all the nodes use their latest data to re-train the common model and share new training results (essentially weights used in the neural network layers) with all other members of the learning network.

Shared learnings would be encrypted with TLS plus some form of homomorphic encryption that allowed for calculations over the encrypted data.

In both federated and swarm learning, the sharing mechanism was facilitated by a privileged block chain (apparently Etherium for swarm). All learning nodes would use this blockchain to share learnings and download any updates to the common model after sharing.

Federated vs. Swarm learning

The main difference between federated and swarm learning is that with federated learning there is a central authority that updates the model(s) and with swarm learning that processing is replaced by a smart contract executing within the blockchain. Updating model(s) is done by each node updating the blockchain with shared data and then once all updates are in, it triggers a smart contract to execute some Etherium VM code which aggregates all the learnings and constructs a new model (or at least new weights for the model). Thus no node is responsible for updating the model, it’s all embedded into a smart contract within the Etherium block chain. .

Buthow does the swarm (or smart contract) update the common model’s weights. The Nature article states that they used either a straight average or a weighted average (weighted by “weight” of a node [we assume this is a function of the node’s re-training dataset size]) to update all parameters of the common model(s).

Testing Swarm vs. Centralized vs. Individual (node) model learning

In the Nature paper, the researchers compared a central model, where all data is available to retrain the models, with one utilizing swarm learning. To perform the comparison, they had all nodes contribute 20% of their test data to a central repository, which ran the common swarm updated model against this data to compute an accuracy metric for the swarm. The resulting accuracy of the central vs swarm learning comparison look identical.

They also ran the comparison of each individual node (just using the common model and then retraining it over time without sharing this information to the swarm versus using the swarm learning approach. In this comparison the swarm learning approach alway seemed to have as good as if not better accuracy and much narrower dispersion.

In the Nature paper, the researchers used swarm learning to manage the machine learning model predictions for detecting COVID19, Leukemia, Tuberculosis, and other lung diseases. All of these used public data, which included PBMC (peripheral blood mono-nuclear cells) transcription data, whole blood transcription data, and X-ray images.

Swarm learning also provides the ability to onboard new nodes in the network. Which would supply the common model and it’s current weights to the new node and add it to the shared learning smart contract.

The code for the swarm learning can be downloaded from HPE (requires an HPE passport login [it’s free]). The code for the models and data processing used in the paper are available from github. All this seems relatively straight forward, one could use the HPE Swarm Learning Library to facilitate doing this or code it up oneself.

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Towards a better AGI – part 3(ish)

Read an article this past week in Nature about the need for Cooperative AI (Cooperative AI: machines must learn to find common ground) which supplies the best view I’ve seen as to a direction research needs to go to develop a more beneficial and benign AI-AGI.

Not sure why, but this past month or so, I’ve been on an AGI fueled frenzy (at leastihere). I didn’t realize this was going to be a multi-part journey otherwise, I would have lableled them AGI part-1 & -2 ( please see: Existential event risks [part-0], NVIDIA Triton GMI, a step to far [part-1] and The Myth of AGI [part-2] to learn more).

But first please take our new poll:

The Nature article puts into perspective what we all want from future AI (or AGI). That is,

  • AI-AI cooperation: AI systems that cooperate with one another while at the same time understand that not all activities are zero sum competitions (like chess, go, Atari games) but rather most activities, within the human sphere, are cooperative activities where one agent has a set of goals and a different agent has another set of goals, some of which overlap while others are in conflict. Sport games like soccer lacrosse come to mind. But there are other card and (Risk & Diplomacy) board games that use cooperating parties, with diverse goals to achieve common ends.
  • AI-Human cooperation: AI systems that cooperate with humans to achieve common goals. Here too, most humans have their own sets of goals, some of which may be in conflict with the AI systems goals. However, all humans have a shared set of goals, preservation of life comes to mind. It’s in this arena where the challenges are most acute for AI systems. Divining human and their own system underlying goals and motivations is not simple. And of course giving priority to the “right” goals when they compete or are in conflict will be an increasingly difficult task to accomplish, given todays human diversity.
  • Human-Human cooperation: Here it gets pretty interesting, but the paper seems to say that any future AI system should be designed to enhance human-human interaction, not deter or interfere with it. One can see the challenge of disinformation today and how wonderful it would be to have some AI agent that could filter all this and present a proper picture of our world. But, humans have different goals and trying to figure out what they are and which are common and thereby something to be enhanced will be an ongoing challenge.

The problem with today’s AI research is that its all about improving specific activities (image recognition, language understanding, recommendation engines, etc) but all are point solutions and none (if any) are focused on cooperation.

Tit for tat wins the award

To that end, the authors of the paper call for a new direction one that attempts to imbue AI systems with social intelligence and cooperative intelligence to work well in the broader, human dominated world that lies ahead.

In the Nature article they mentioned a 1984 book by Richard Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation. Perhaps, the last great research on cooperation that was ever produced.

In this book it talked about a world full of simulated prisoner dilemma actors that interacted, one with another, at random.

The experimenters programmed some agents to always do the proper thing for their current partner, some to always do the wrong thing to their partner, others to do right once than wrong from that point forward, etc. The experimenters tried every sort of cooperation policy they could think of.

Each agent in an interaction would get some number of points for an interaction. For example, if both did the right thing they would each get 3 points, if one did wrong, the sucker would get 1 and the bad actor would get 4, both did wrong each got 1 point, etc.

The agents that had the best score during a run (of 1000s of random pairings/interactions) would multiply for the the next run and the agents that did worse would disappear over time in the population of agents in simulated worlds.

The optimal strategy that emerged from these experiments was

  1. Do the right thing once with every new partner, and
  2. From that point forward tit for tat (if the other party did right the last time, then you do right thing the next time you interact with them, if they did wrong the last time, then you do wrong the next time you interact with them).

It was mind boggling at the time to realize that such a simple strategy could be so effective/sustainable in simulation and perhaps in the real world. It turns out that in a (simulated) world of bad agents, there would be this group of Tit for Tat agents that would build up, defend itself and expand over time to succeed.

That was the state of the art in cooperation research back then (1984). I’ve not seen anything similar to this since.

I haven’t seen anything like this that discusses how to implement algorithms in support of social intelligence.

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The authors of the Nature article believe it’s once again time to start researching cooperation techniques and start researching social intelligence so we can instill proper cooperation and social intelligence technology into future AI (AGI) systems .

Perhaps if we can do this, we may create a better AI (or AGI) so that both it and we can live better in our world, galaxy and universe.

Comments?

The myth of AGI

Sorry seem to be on an AGI bent this month…

Read an article the other day about a new book (The myth of AI, by Erik. J. Larson) that explains how the present direction of AI-ML-DL will be very unlikely to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) given it’s current direction. Amazon and others offer a short preview of the book which is where most of this discussion comes from.

Types of (human) reasoning

Near as I can tell, (don’t have the book), the book discusses the three types of reasoning that exist in human intellect, i.e., deduction, induction and abduction.

  • Deduction uses formal logic (or its equivalents) to derive facts or theorems from basic principles.
  • Induction uses a multitude of samples and constructs general principles from the analysis of them
  • Abduction uses a set of probabilistic assertions and formal logic, to come up with a probabilistic principle.

Deduction is most famously observed in geometry and arithmetic proofs and was most evident in the early years of AI through its use of expert systems. The challenge with expert systems is that the real world is vastly more complex than any geometrical or arithmetical artifice that humankind can produce.

Expert systems became champions of checkers, chess and some other games but in the end was not easily generalizable beyond a few (gaming and medically) restricted domains.

Induction is presently all the rage and represents what machine learning and deep neural networks (DNN) are doing with all that training data and resultant classification inferencing.

Today we have DNNs that can classify the objects in an image, can learn to play any game on the planet better than humans, and can even safely drive a car down the road.

The current AI world view is that this form of reasoning, DNN induction, will if taken to its extreme will ultimately result in some level of AGI, or human-equivalent levels of intelligence in a system. The author of the book begs to differ.

Abduction is less well known or discussed in rational circles. It’s essentially what any human does when presented with real world examples/experiences to derive an understanding (or principe) of what happened.

For example, a plate full of cookies last night becomes an almost empty plate of crumbs and two cookies. So what happened, your son woke up early, consumed most if not all of them, and left for work. This is a probabilistic (most likely) inference, but has a high probability of being true.

Any AGI will need all forms of reasoning

The challenge is that AI has been through the deduction phase through the rise of expert systems which crashed and burned because of the cost and time required to produce an exhaustive and correct expert system. And AI is currently in the induction phase, via DNN training, which seems to be entirely more generalizable and successfully usable in many different domains, but no one is talking seriously about doing abduction in AI (anymore).

The author claims (again, have not read the book) that any AGI will require as much abduction as induction (as well as perhaps deduction), and therefore, AGI is not inevitable based on our current AI DNN (or induction) intensive path.

Previous and current attempts at abduction reasoning

Some may recall fuzzy logic as one of the avenues taken after expert systems seemed to fail at doing successful and realistic inferencing around the end of last century. Fuzzy logic was a way of bring probabilities into deduction, not unlike abduction as defined above. With fuzzy logic each assertion or base assumption was given a probabilistic value (of being true) and the final derivation was assigned some level of probability of being true.

The wikipedia article has definitions for fuzzy logic and, or and not which of course would allow any system to make these assertions. But fuzzy logic (like expert systems above) suffered from the inability to exhaustively cover all examples in a real world situation.

Furthermore, the (funny) thing about DNNs is that they are much more probabilistic than it appears. If one examines classification outputs of any DNN, it is extremely rare to see some sort of boolean (true or false) yes or no answers. Mostly one sees a series of probabilities that are assigned to each classification bucket.

DNN systems hide these probabilities by just selecting the maximum (or minimum) probability generated as its final classification. This is entirely an artifact of needing to have some discrete output (classification selection). But DNN (internal) results always result in probabilistic values.

So although, pure induction doesn’t include probabilities, DNN induction as practiced today in AI systems, uses probabilistic reasoning in every layer of a DNN and in its final results.

What else may be missing from AI to allow AGI to be developed

Personally, AGI seems to require not just the reasoning approaches above, but a more workable and general purpose planning solution. I’ve tried to identify to see whether some researchers are using DNNs to provide general purpose planning solutions but have been yet to find any (in publcly available research). These are probably the one place where expert (or control) fuzzy systems still shine. But again they are hard to generalize and prove almost impossible to be completely exhaustive.

Nonetheless, in the end, I think that all the above just proves, that there are a number of distinct reasoning and other (planning) techniques that may need to come together to provide AGI. As any of us can attest, all of these different approaches are available within any human intellect.

And if we assume that any AGI will need to follow the human design to intelligence (not a given), they will all need to be stitched together, combined and brought to bear to realize AGI.

But, at present, with all the focus on DNN/induction, we, as AI researchers, are not making any progress on using these other techniques or in combining them into a single system.

And for that I am happy. I would be very pleased to have any AGI be farther out than nearer term. Because for the life of me, AGI scares the s&#t out of me.

Mostly because I don’t see any real way to control AGI, once unleashed. That and given the diversity of motives around this world, I don’t see any realistic mechanism to instill a universal and firm (unalterable) belief in the sanctity of human and other life, the dependance this life has on our environment/biosphere and the rule of law needed to maintain peace across humankind (and I’m probably missing a half dozen more things that we would want any AGI to adhere to).

Maybe, if I saw more effort on how, we as a species can come up with universal views on these and other topics and can come up with some way of instilling, essentially a system of programs, with these unalterable beliefs and AGI controls based on these, I’d be less fearful of AGI emerging.

Lacking that, any way of delaying its emergence, is fine by me.

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