(Storage QoW 15-003): Will we see SMR disks in GA enterprise storage systems over the next 12 months?

SMR refers to very high density (10TB), shingled magnetic recording (SMR) hard disk devices.

GA means generally available for purchase by any customer.

Enterprise storage systems refers to mid-range and enterprise class storage systems from major AND non-major storage vendors, which includes startups.

Over the next 12 months means by 22 December 2016.

We discussed our Analyst Forecasting and previous Questions of the week (QoW) on 3D XPoint technology ( forecast) and 3D TLC NAND technology (forecast), with present status below.

Present QoW forecasts:

(#Storage-QoW 15-001) – Will 3D XPoint be GA’d in  enterprise storage systems within 12 months? 2 active forecasters, current forecasts are:

A) YES with 0.85 probability; and

B) NO with 0.62 probability.

(Storage-QoW 15-002) 3D TLC NAND GA’d in major vendor storage next year? 3 active participants, current forecasts are:

A) Yes with 0.95 probability;

B) No with 0.53 probability; and

C) Yes with 1.0 probability