I was almost going to just say something about TLC NAND but there’s planar TLC and 3D TLC. From my perspective, planar NAND is on the way out, so we go with 3D TLC NAND.
QoW 2015-002 definitions
By “3D TLC NAND” we mean 3 dimensional (rather than planar or 2 dimensional) triple level cell (meaning 3 values rather than two [MLC] or one [SLC]) NAND technology. It could show up in SSDs, PCIe cards and perhaps other implementations. At least one flash vendor is claiming to be shipping 3D TLC NAND so it’s available to be used. We did a post earlier this year on 3D NAND, how high can it go. Rumors are out that startup vendors will adopt the technology but have heard nothing any major vendor plans for the technology.
By “major vendor storage products” I mean EMC VMAX, VNX or XtremIO; HDS VSP G1000, HUS VM (or replacement), VSP-F/VSP G800-G600; HPE 3PAR, IBM DS8K, FlashSystem, or V7000 StorWize; & NetApp AFF/FAS 8080, 8060, or 8040. I tried to use 700 drives or better block storage product lines for the major storage vendors.
By “in the next year” I mean between today (15Dec2015) and one year from today (15Dec2016).
By “GA” I mean a generally available product offering that can be ordered, sold and installed within the time frame identified above.
Forecasts for QoW 2015-002 need to be submitted via email (or via twitter with email addresses known to me) to me before end of day (PT) next Tuesday 22Dec2015.
We are always looking for future QoW’s, so if you have any ideas please drop me a line.
Forecast contest – status update for prior QoW(s):
(#Storage-QoW 2015-001) – Will 3D XPoint be GA’d in enterprise storage systems within 12 months? 2 active forecasters, current forecasts are:
A) YES with 0.85 probability; and
B) NO with 0.62 probability.
These can be updated over time, so we will track current forecasts for both forecasters with every new QoW.